The incredible prices paid for high flying technology stocks this past year - whether it be in the form of acquisitions, in the cases of Dropcam, Open Table, WhatsApp, OcculusVR, and Nest, or in the form of financings, in the cases of Uber, Airbnb, Dropbox, has raised the age old questions, worries, and doubts about whether this market and these technology deals constitute a bubble.
And if so, when and how it will burst.
These concerns are mirrored in the recent price run-ups in both the stock and real estate markets.
As detailed last week, since March 2009 the S&P index has almost tripled, while real estate prices are up 10.5% this year and are now approaching their 2007 highs.
So, will it all inevitably come crashing down? Again?
And more importantly - whether it is or isn't a bubble - how can the individual entrepreneur and/or investor profit and win in the current conditions?
Let's take the bubble question first.
By almost any objective standard, paying into the billions of dollars for businesses with little revenues and/or significant operating losses - as is the case with all the companies mentioned above - is absurd.
There are very few plausible scenarios where the cash flow that these companies will be able to generate can any way justify the prices being paid for them now.
It is just hard to see how Nest will ever be able to sell enough thermostats, Occulus enough virtual reality headsets, Uber to take on enough ride shares, Airbnb enough spare bedroom rentals to justify the prices being paid for their businesses.
So, in this context yes, these businesses are wildly over-priced and there is a very good likelihood that the investors in them will experience a painful comeuppance.
This, however, represents a theoretical view of pricing, one driven by the relationship between current and future cash flows.
In the real world however, prices are determined by supply and demand.
And more to the point, by the relative abundance or paucity of Next Best Alternatives.
In this context, these prices make a LOT of sense.
You see, what we have in the world today is a lot of cash chasing a very small number of growth opportunities.
Some of this cash comes from expansionistic Monetary Policies pursued by the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks.
And a lot more of it comes from massive commodities-driven wealth in places like Russia, Africa, South America, and the Middle East.
And the owners of all this cash - trillions upon trillions of dollars of it - are naturally seeking to put it to work.
And their options for doing so are far more limited than one might think.
Bank interest rates the world over remain pathetically low.
Political instability, corruption, immature financial systems and securities laws close off private equity-type investments close to home.
So when it comes to true growth opportunities – the kinds driven by technologies that transform industries and markets - businesses like these are extremely unique and relative to the amount of cash out there seeking to be put to work, also in exceedingly short supply.
These global macroeconomic conditions show no sign of abating, so from these perspectives No are not high and the current conditions can and should continue for some time.
So that leads to our second question - how can today's investors and entrepreneurs benefit and win in these markets.
Well, as discussed last week, first of all by cultivating a bullish mindset in line with these strong economic times.
By recognizing the Sucker’s Bet that cash now is and likelihood will remain for the foreseeable future.
By fully embracing that this is not 2009 anymore - that the Great Recession has ended and that we are in the beginning stages of a Technology-Driven Growth Boom with no end in sight.
And to be resolved to grab your piece of it.
To Your Success,
↧
Today’s Market: A Bubble Waiting to Burst?
↧